They explicitly modeled zero revenue from their biggest customer in 2027 and still guided the quarter up.
Thesis: The Street is trading the 2027 Apple divorce while Amon is executing a 2025 Edge AI pivot. The 'premium mix' shift to >30% of the market isn't just a stat; it's the only reason they can pass through TSMC's price hikes without crushing margins. DeepSeek-R1 running locally is the proof of concept that turns their NPU investment from capex to moat. Auto and IoT growing at 50%+ validates the post-handset life raft.
Verdict: LONG — Conviction: MEDIUM
Catalyst: Q2 PC sales data confirming Copilot+ models holding >10% share in the US >$800 segment.
Key Risk: TSMC 2nm pricing power squeezes margins faster than the premium mix shift can offset, turning the 'pricing power' narrative into a margin crunch.
The Tell: Amon stating 'We're assuming no renewal... nothing in 2027' for Apple. CEOs usually keep that door cracked for leverage. Closing it publicly means they've fully modeled the loss and believe the new growth engines can swallow it.
Friction Level: MODERATE_FRICTION — Whether the explosion in Auto/IoT and Edge AI can mathematically fill the $6B Apple revenue hole before 2027.
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