They reported record profits and then admitted the jump included one-time inventory gains. 2026 revenue growth is decelerating to 10%.
Thesis: The AI-driven EUV resist narrative is hiding a significant growth deceleration. 43% profit growth is unrepeatable. It relies on a one-time inventory recognition event. Investors are paying a premium multiple for a consumable supplier that holds zero pricing power over TSMC and Samsung. The 2026 guidance requires aggressive FX tailwinds and flawless execution at new customer fabs.
Verdict: HOLD — Conviction: MEDIUM
Catalyst: Revision of the mid-term plan in 2026 will reveal if structural demand can offset the loss of one-time accounting benefits.
Key Risk: Yen strength against the aggressive ¥150 assumption erases the guided 10% revenue growth for 2026.
The Tell: Management admitted the 43.2% operating profit increase included one-time factors from inventory recognition for development-related materials.
Friction Level: HIGH_FRICTION — Disagreement on whether the 43% profit surge represents structural pricing power in EUV materials or an unsustainable peak driven by one-time accounting adjustments and customer utilization rates.
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