They crushed NAND guidance by 50% yet DRAM ASP barely moved.
Thesis: HBM3E dominance has turned this commodity laggard into a high-margin bottleneck. The market is missing the NAND inflection. eSSDs are moving from storage to compute cache. Capacity is tight until 2026. The pricing power and debt reduction create an asymmetric long.
Verdict: LONG — Conviction: HIGH
Catalyst: M15X opening in Q4 2025 and HBM4 ramp in 2026.
Key Risk: Geopolitical revocation of VEU status for China fabs. These represent 40% of DRAM footprint.
The Tell: ASP rose only by low single-digits despite the HBM ramp. Management admitted this was due to sales of lower-priced conventional DRAM. This reveals the legacy business still dilutes the HBM story.
Friction Level: MODERATE_FRICTION — The disagreement centers on whether the 2026 capacity ceiling and China geopolitical exposure neutralize the massive margin expansion in HBM and eSSD.
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