They hit 100% utilization and raised prices while selling their newest fab for $1.8B.
Thesis: The operational turnaround is real. Gross margins ex-P5 hit 17% up from negative 7.7 billion NT. Micron prepaying for equipment confirms Powerchip holds the capacity bottleneck despite the captive supplier label.
Verdict: LONG — Conviction: MEDIUM
Catalyst: The finalization of the Micron HBM contract post-Lunar New Year and the first revenue from AI PMIC server volume.
Key Risk: Failure to sign the Micron contract on favorable terms. The transition from P5 to Hsinchu lines could cause supply gaps.
The Tell: Management refused to disclose HBM margins while citing commercial confidentiality. This reveals they are a captive supplier to Micron despite the bottleneck they own.
Friction Level: HIGH_FRICTION — The Micron contract status. One side sees a Backlog Fortress via prepayments. The other sees a Captive Supplier with uncommitted technology transfers and hidden margins.
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