They kept the JPY 65 dividend while losing JPY 13.2B in six months. Management claims faster recovery while cutting segment sales guidance by JPY 25B.
Thesis: Resonac is a legacy materials player trapped in a structural back-end margin squeeze. The 30% revenue drop in semiconductor materials is an exodus. Not a cycle. Management is burning the balance sheet to maintain a dividend while closing plants. They are a cost center for foundries with zero pricing power.
Verdict: SHORT — Conviction: HIGH
Catalyst: Q3 results confirming the JPY 25B segment sales downgrade and further HDD write-downs.
Key Risk: Niche bottleneck ownership in specific advanced packaging materials required for CoWoS ramp.
The Tell: Somemiya admitted segment sales will be down JPY 25B from the May forecast despite claiming recovery is 'faster than our forecast.' Faster recovery does not result in a guidance cut.
Friction Level: HIGH_FRICTION — Fundamental disagreement on the 30% revenue crater in Semiconductor Materials. One side sees cyclical inventory digestion and a restructuring pivot. The other sees structural demand destruction in legacy back-end nodes and a terminal HDD business.
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