They own the future of packaging, but TSMC owns their present revenue. Orders missed guidance by €20M while the AI supply chain is supposedly booming.
Thesis: Besi is a 'jam tomorrow' trade. The technology moat in Hybrid Bonding is real (validated by AMAT's 9% stake and HBM4 sampling), but the 2025 P&L is dead money. They are a capex derivative play on a cycle that has paused for digestion. Until HBM4 orders move from 'sampling' to 'volume POs', you are paying a premium for a roadmap. The dividend is a bribe to wait.
Verdict: HOLD — Conviction: MEDIUM
Catalyst: HBM4 qualification decisions from memory customers in 2H 2025. This determines if Hybrid Bonding is a 2026 ramp or a 2027 push-out.
Key Risk: Memory makers finding a way to extend TCB/Reflow to 16-Hi stacks, pushing Hybrid Bonding adoption out to HBM4E (2027).
The Tell: When asked about the order miss, CEO Blickman admitted: 'We received in orders much less than what we guided.' He then pivoted to 'revenue was fine.' Revenue is a lagging indicator; orders are the truth. The hesitation is real.
Friction Level: HIGH_FRICTION — Timing of Hybrid Bonding adoption. Bulls see inevitable physics (HBM4 needs it); Bears see indefinite delays and zero pricing power against TSMC.
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