They just posted 65% gross margins in a revenue trough without orders from 95% of the HBM market.
Thesis: This is the cleanest monopoly in the supply chain. The bear case rests on 'timing risk' for hybrid bonding adoption, but the financials show BESI generates 64.6% gross margins—a record—on trough revenues. That is absolute pricing power. The fact that Samsung and SK Hynix (95% of HBM share) haven't ordered yet is not a risk; it is the massive repricing catalyst sitting in the future. You buy the tool maker before the capacity war starts, not after.
Verdict: LONG — Conviction: HIGH
Catalyst: The first public hybrid bonding order from a Korean memory player (Samsung or SK Hynix).
Key Risk: Adoption pushout beyond 2026 if thermal issues in CoWoS or HBM yield struggles force a delay in 3D stacking roadmaps.
The Tell: When Analyst Didier Scemama tried to imply Korean memory was ordering ('you have now a Korean subcontractor'), Blickman interrupted immediately: 'Let me correct you there... The Korean memory has not yet jumped on the bandwagon.' He refused to let the market price in false hope.
Friction Level: HIGH_FRICTION — Bears see a delay in mainstream adoption (2025/26 volume). Bulls see a monopoly tool-maker demonstrating pricing power before the inevitable HBM4 capacity build.
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