They hit 46% gross margin in semis while bookings dropped 20% sequential.
Thesis: This is a bottleneck monopoly play. ASMPT owns the TCB step for HBM stacking. The Street is distracted by the 'lumpy' order patterns typical of equipment super-cycles and the legacy drag. The signal is the 46.3% SEMI gross margin—pricing power is real because they are the Process of Record. You buy the digestion phase before HBM4 orders hit in H2.
Verdict: LONG — Conviction: HIGH
Catalyst: HBM4 production orders in H2 2025, specifically confirming fluxless TCB adoption.
Key Risk: Hybrid bonding acceleration rendering TCB obsolete for 16-high stacks faster than expected.
The Tell: Robin Ng's blunt admission on follow-on orders: 'It takes time for the customer to digest the capacity.' No fake 'demand is robust' narrative—just an honest acknowledgement that the customer owns the cadence.
Friction Level: MODERATE_FRICTION — Street focuses on the -19.5% QoQ bookings drop as a demand signal. Thesis views it as inevitable digestion of a bulk order while structural margin expands.
Report not found
The report data is no longer available. Please return to the archive.