Blended ASPs rose 10% while legacy prices collapsed. The commodity era is over for the top tier.
Thesis: SK Hynix has decoupled from the DRAM cycle. They are trading logic-layer margin to TSMC to secure total dominance in HBM stacking. This is an AI compute bottleneck trade. The 10% sequential ASP rise in a legacy downturn proves structural pricing power.
Verdict: LONG — Conviction: HIGH
Catalyst: HBM3E 12Hi reaching over 50% of shipments by H1 2025.
Key Risk: TSMC capturing the HBM4 value chain through control of the logic base die.
The Tell: Management dismissed inference concerns by citing AGI requirements. They simultaneously confirmed moving HBM4 logic base die production to TSMC. They are giving up the logic fab fight to protect the stacking moat.
Friction Level: MODERATE_FRICTION — Disagreement on the inference transition. Management claims AGI complexity accelerates HBM demand. Others see inference as a threat to training-heavy volume peaks.
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