semiconductor market outlook Q4 2025

Type: Contrarian Signal

Period: 2025Q4

Topic: - Onto Innovation: Backlog doubled in 90 days with a 1.4x book-to-bill ratio. Management cited dramatically improved 2026 visibility. strength 4 - Teradyne: Q1 guidance of $1.15-1.25B represents 75% year over year growth. AI testing revenue now exceeds 70% of the mix. strength 4 - Applied Materials: Receivables grew 31% while revenue only rose 7%. Days sales outstanding expanded to 71 days. strength 5 - SMIC: Orders for mid-to-low-end chips are declining. Memory price inflation causes de